NFL Week 13 expert picks and odds for Chiefs vs. Bengals, 49ers vs. Dolphins and every other game (2024)

NFL Week 13 features a great slate of games and will play a big role in determining who gets the bye and who makes the playoffs in the AFC.

NFL Week 13 highlights

Thursday night features the Bills traveling to New England to take on the Patriots. Buffalo is in a tough battle to win the AFC East, and the Patriots are still battling for a wild card with a 6-5 record.

Kansas City travels to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals team that beat them twice last season — once in the regular season and again in the AFC Championship game. The Titans take on the Philadelphia Eagles in one of the more intriguing matchups of the week.

The Jets (7-4), with new quarterback Mike White, battle the Vikings in what becomes an interesting measuring stick for both teams. Can White have another successful week against a weak Vikings defense? And on the other side, Minnesota continues to defy the cries of “most overrated team in the NFL” as they chase their 10th win.

Mike McDaniel is finding success in his first year as the Dolphins coach (beyond his fantastic press conferences) and faces his former team on Sunday in San Francisco. The 49ers boast one of the league’s best defenses, while McDaniel’s Dolphins have one of the league’s best offenses.

NFL Betting Trends

• Favorites are 109-66-1 straight up this season, but underdogs are 95-75-6 (55.9%) against the spread
• Unders are 100-78-2 (56.2%) this year

NFL Expert Picks Standings

These odds are constantly updated and live. The Cardinals and Panthers are on bye this week.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Thurs.)

The AFC East is still up for grabs, and the outcome of Thursday’s matchup between the Patriots and Bills could make the divisional race even more interesting. Buffalo will play in enemy territory for a second straight week. The Bills are small favorites.

After competing on Thanksgiving Day, both the Bills and Patriots will face one another at 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Prime Video. Exactly a week after the holiday, the Patriots enter the contest looking up at everyone else in the division standings. While their quest for an AFC East championship is hardly within reach, it isn’t completely out of it. And a win on Thursday, behind some strong defense and a balanced offensive attack, could keep New England on the cusp of a wild card spot.

A wild card spot likely isn’t what anyone within the Bills organization hopes for. A division championship and earning a first-round bye are presumably the more realistic goals in Buffalo. Earning a victory on Thursday would keep Josh Allen and Co. in the mix to accomplish both. Matchup No. 1 of this season for Buffalo against the Patriots will occur without first-year Bill Von Miller controlling the Buffalo defense, meaning others will need to step up to stop New England’s rushing attack. If the Bills can do that, they’ll be in good shape to score their ninth win this year.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

You’re being lied to if anyone tells you they know how this game will go. The Giants are fine. Maybe they were playing above their 7-2 heads. But people have been saying that all season about them — they were playing above their 2-1 heads, their 4-1 heads, etc. Now they’re 7-4 and taking on an equally uneven and hard-to-figure-out Commanders team. The big difference here? The Giants have lost two in a row; the Commanders are riding a three-game winning streak. Washington is a small favorite on the road.

Since Taylor Heinicke took over as starting quarterback, the Commanders have gone 5-1 — and that one loss was by just three points to a very good Vikings team. Heinicke hasn’t exactly been studly, but let the fantasy players worry about that; in real-life football, he’s winning, and he’s beaten the Eagles, Packers and Colts (although the latter two accomplishments are more dubious than seasons past). Still, momentum is momentum, and Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Commanders could also get Chase Young back in the lineup this week for the first time this year.

The Giants are 1-3 in their last four games, and the defeats haven’t exactly been by the slimmest of margins — they lost to the Seahawks by 14, the Lions by 13 and the Cowboys by 8. Depending on how you view the Commanders, the Giants are about to enter a daunting stretch — they face Washington and Philadelphia twice, with the Vikings and the Colts as non-conference opponents smushed in. This game against the Commanders could either extend the misery and send the Giants into a spiral for the Dec. 11 game against the Eagles… or it could be just the momentum-shifter they need.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings

An AFC-NFC matchup set for the midwest has the potential to be one of Week 13’s better games when the Jets hit the road to face the Vikings. New York will enter as a slight underdog.

The Jets will ride the momentum of their new-and-improved offense at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis (on FOX). In case you’re unaware, New York got out to a strong start offensively this season under Joe Flacco but found itself unable to gain yards or produce points as Zach Wilson returned from injury and took over as the starting quarterback. But now that Mike White has taken over for the struggling Wilson in Week 12, there’s optimism that the offense is back. We’ll have to see if the Mike White Experience lasts longer than it did a season ago, but for now, between his play and the defense continuing to be good, this Jets-Vikings matchup should be great.

Minnesota has a five-game cushion on the Detroit Lions, the second-place team in the NFC North. But at this point, Kevin O’Connell’s group has to have its sights set on a division title and a conference regular-season championship. The Vikings currently sit in second place in the NFC following their Thanksgiving Day win, and a victory over the Jets on Sunday would keep them there. To do so, the Vikings will likely need to follow their winning recipe, which includes Kirk Cousins airing it out to Justin Jefferson and others en route to scoring major points. But Minnesota will need to be ready for a gritty Jets defense.

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

Nothing about the Tennessee Titans is ever pretty, but every year they have double digit wins and sit near the top of the AFC standings. After losing their first two games, the Titans have again climbed to the top of the AFC South and have a three-game lead over every other team in the division. In a big measuring stick game on Sunday, Tennessee gets to test itself against one of the league’s best teams, Philadelphia. They are nearly a touchdown underdog on the road.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will be televised on FOX.

The big subplot in this game will be Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown going up against the team that traded him this offseason.

Brown has been a huge addition to the Eagles and helped take them from a playoff team to a bonafide Super Bowl contender. He has given quarterback Jalen Hurts another major weapon in the passing game to complement Devonta Smith. He has already caught 53 passes for 831 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Titans could certainly use that sort of impact player in their lineup.

Even with their recent success that has seen them win seven of their past nine games, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. They have not scored more than 24 points in a game this season and are 26th in the league in points per game. They have three wins where they have scored 19 points or less.

As is usually the case, everything in Tennessee runs through superstar running back Derrick Henry. Even though he has already topped the 1,000-yard mark for the season, he has struggled the past three weeks. During that stretch, he has averaged less than three yards per carry, not topped the 90-yard mark, and scored just a single touchdown.

The Titans have a lot of cushion in the playoff race for a home game, but the Eagles have way less margin for error in the NFC East despite their 10-1 record as the Dallas Cowboys remain within striking distance.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions entered 2022 hoping to turn their franchises around. But both teams enter Sunday’s game sitting at 4-7 with six games remaining. The loser of this game probably finds itself preparing for another NFL Draft season, while the winner gives itself a small chance at getting back in a Wild Card race. The Jaguars are small favorites.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. Sunday from Ford Field in Detroit. FOX will broadcast the game.

Trevor Lawrence had one of those eye-opening moments last Sunday when he led the Jaguars to a comeback victory over the Ravens. Lawrence finished 29-for-37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Baltimore took a 19-10 lead 2 minutes into the fourth quarter. Jacksonville scored 18 points in the last 6 minutes of the game, including the game-winning touchdown pass from Lawrence to Marvin Jones Jr. and a successful two-point conversion to win the game.

The Lions had a good fight on Thanksgiving before falling to the Bills. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but the Lions will look to get things back on track against Jacksonville. Running back Jamaal Williams leads the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns this year.

The total of 51.5 is one of the highest totals for NFL Week 13, and this game should feature plenty of scoring on the turf in Detroit.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday’s early slate of NFL games in Week 13 will include an AFC battle between the Broncos and Ravens. With both teams looking to get back into the win column, it’ll be the Ravens, with home-field advantage, who enter as just under double-digit favorites.

The Ravens will look to remain atop the AFC North with a win against the Broncos at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The game will be broadcasted on CBS. The Ravens are looking to win the fifth game out of their last six, with the only loss being at Jacksonville last week.

What can we expect to see as we tune in on Sunday? Defense. This Ravens-Broncos matchup is projected to be the lowest-scoring NFL game of Week 13, which checks out when you consider that Denver has only reached 20 points once on the season, and its defense has only allowed its opponents to get there in three of 11 games. It’ll be a tough matchup for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense.

Things won’t get any easier for the struggling Broncos. Perhaps Denver’s defense will keep the team in the game (as its done all season long). But will Russell Wilson be able to help his unit manufacture enough points to win for the first time in over a month and pull off a shocking upset?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers are not likely to make the playoffs this season, they are still showing some signs of improvement on offense. They have won two of their past three games, and have had their two best offensive showings of the season over the past weeks. That recent turnaround has Sunday’s game in Atlanta as virtually even in terms of the odds, with the Falcons being favored by less than a field goal.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Mercedez-Benz Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS.

In terms of the 2022 season, the stakes are far more significant for Atlanta, despite its 5-7 record, because it is only a half of a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the dismal AFC South. The problem for the Falcons is that with losses in three of their past four games they might be in danger of squandering that opportunity.

The Falcons offense is centered around its running game with a quartet of players (Tyler Allgeier, Cordarelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley, and quarterback Marcus Mariotta) that have all rushed for more than 300 yards this season.

The Steelers’ run defense, which was a major Achilles Heel and one of the weakest units in the league a year ago, has dramatically improved this season and enters Sunday’s game sixth against the run in the NFL this season.

Also showing improvement for the Steelers is rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. After struggling with turnovers in his first few starts, he has now gone three consecutive games without turning the football over and is coming off his two best games of the season. Monday’s win against Indianapolis was his best game as he completed 20 of 28 passes and helped convert a crucial two-point conversion late in the game. He has also started to develop a nice chemistry with fellow rookie George Pickens.

Outside of two games against Baltimore, the Steelers’ remaining schedule is very favorable (Atlanta, Carolina, Las Vegas, and Cleveland all have losing records) and should be a good opportunity for Pickett to keep improving and gaining experience going into next season.

Neither team brings a dynamic offense into this game, leaving Sunday’s over/under set at 43 points.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

There’s nothing like a good NFC North inter-divisional rivalry to get the football juices flowing on Sunday afternoon (or morning, depending on where you’re at). The Bears will host the Packers as both teams try to distance themselves from the bottom of the conference. Green Bay is favored by more than a field goal. But while it may be one of the best rivalries in the NFL, this game is near the bottom of must-watch games on Sunday.

Is it Jordan Love time? That is the question that everyone is asking after seeing Aaron Rodgers leave the game early with a rib injury during Green Bay’s Sunday Night Football loss to the Eagles in Week 12. Rodgers said earlier this week that he’ll still be starting Sunday.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago on FOX. Whoever it is will have the pleasure of trying to help keep the Packers from falling to the bottom of the NFC North where the Bears currently reside.

The division-worst Bears have some quarterback questions of their own. Justin Fields missed last weekend’s game with a shoulder injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll suit up this Sunday or not. Chicago will try to break a seven-game losing streak to the Packers and beat them for the first time since December 2018.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

We’re set for an AFC battle this Sunday when the Browns travel to Houston for a date with the Texans. Unsurprisingly, Houston will enter this game as a heavy underdog despite having the advantage of playing this game at home.

Sunday’s Browns-Texans game will have more eyeballs than any ordinary matchup of two well-below-.500 teams. Of course, when the two clubs take the field at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston on CBS, the Texans will be hosting their former franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson, playing in his first game since January of 2021. The odds are against the Texans, who have the worst record in the league, spoiling Watson’s return. However, at the very least, we can assume the Houston crowd will be more lively than usual.

Watson didn’t play at all in the 2021 season with Houston and was suspended for 11 games this season due to numerous sexual assault allegations. The NFL originally suspended Watson for the entire regular season on appeal, but the NFL and NFLPA reached a settlement that saw him suspended 11 games and fined $5 million.

The Browns’ season is what it is — they have a 4-7 record, are sitting in third place in the AFC North and need a lot of things to go right for a playoff appearance to be a possibility. But in a way, Cleveland’s season is getting ready to start a brand new chapter. Watson will relieve Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback. How differently, if at all, will players like Nick Chubb, Donovan Peoples-Jones (who is having a breakout season) and Amari Cooper perform alongside Watson? It’ll be interesting to see how everything plays out this Sunday in Watson’s first game with the Browns and in his first game back in front of Houston’s fans.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday’s NFC West matchup between the Rams and Seahawks features two teams currently trending in the wrong direction. As both teams look to turn the page on a forgettable November, the Seahawks are small favorites to win.

Seahawks-Rams kicks off at 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. FOX will provide the coverage for the Week 13 divisional bout that Seattle needs to win if it wants to stay in contention for an NFC West championship. It won’t be easy for Geno Smith and this versatile Seahawks offense, no matter how up-and-down the Rams’ defense is.

The Rams defense will be without defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who will miss the first game of his NFL career with an ankle injury.

What if I told you before the season that the defending champion Los Angeles Rams would be 3-8 and near the bottom of the NFC heading into Week 13? It would sound unbelievable, but that’s the reality that injury-hit Rams are in going into their matchup with the Seahawks. They won’t have Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford or Allen Robinson III on Sunday, which leaves John Wolford and several backups tasked with ending their five-game losing streak and extending Seattle’s to three.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

After helping architect San Francisco’s running game and offense the past few years, Mike McDaniel is now the coach in Miami, and his career is off to a great start as the Dolphins continue to push for the AFC East crown. McDaniel gets his first look at his former team on Sunday in what could be a potential Super Bowl preview. The 49ers are just a little more than a field goal favorite as they try to extend their winning streak to five games.

Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday from Santa Clara. The game will be televised on FOX.

It will be a battle of clashing styles as McDaniel and the Dolphins bring in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses against a San Francisco defense that has been one of the most dominant in the league this season.

That defense has helped drive the 49ers’ recent winning streak, allowing just 40 points during that streak. They are coming off of a 13-0 shutout on Sunday. For the season, the 49ers are No. 1 in the league in terms of points against and total yards against.

It will be a big test against a Miami team with one of the best wide receiver duos in the league and an emerging MVP candidate in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The addition of Tyreek Hill has been a game-changer for both Tagovailoa and the Dolphins as he leads the league in both receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,233) and has a chance to break the 2,000-yard receiving mark for the season.

Jaylen Waddle is also just 37 yards away from topping the 1,000-yard mark for the season.

Miami is riding an impressive winning streak of its own at five games, but it has a hellacious remaining schedule. After playing San Francisco on Sunday, the Dolphins also have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and New York Jets, with only two of them coming at home. Outside of Green Bay, every one of those teams is either in a playoff spot or competing for a playoff spot.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

Perhaps NFL Week 13’s best game in a slate full of good games is the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game the Bengals won 27-24 in overtime. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid haven’t forgotten about blowing an 11-point halftime lead to Joe Burrow and company. The Bengals also beat the Chiefs in Week 17 last year, so this is shaping up to be a new rivalry between Mahomes and Burrow.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday from Cincinnati with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call for CBS. Kansas City is a small favorite on the road. The Chiefs and Bengals are both 7-2 in their last nine games.

The Bengals hope to get a big boost back to their offense with the return of Ja’Marr Chase to the lineup. He’s been out since Week 8 with a hip injury and hopes to return against the Chiefs. He had 11 receptions, 266 yards and three touchdowns in the regular-season game against the Chiefs last year in Week 17. Chase almost returned last week against the Titans but told coaches he didn’t feel 100 percent comfortable, and he elected to continue healing for another week.

Joe Mixon returned to practice on Wednesday after missing two games with a concussion.

Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 3,585 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. That’s six more touchdowns than Burrow, who is tied for second place with Josh Allen. Mahomes is the current favorite to win the NFL MVP award at BetMGM. The Chiefs are battling a long list of injuries, with 11 players appearing on Wednesday’s injury report.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

When the 2022 NFL season began, the AFC West was supposed to be a gauntlet of Super Bowl contenders after nearly every team made a huge off-season addition. Outside of Kansas City, the entire division has been disappointing, with Los Angeles and Las Vegas leading the disappointment. The Chargers are still in the playoff race, but they have little margin for error and need a win on Sunday against the Raiders. They are nearly a field-goal favorite on the road.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Las Vegas. The game will be televised on CBS.

The Chargers are doing their yearly routine where they take preseason Super Bowl expectations and turn it into disappointment. Even with Sunday’s comeback win against Arizona, they are still only 6-5 on the season and find themselves on the outside of the AFC playoff picture, despite having one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks and players in Justin Herbert.

Herbert has taken a small step backward this season but is still dangerous, given his talent and capability of going off any week.

Given the Chargers’ spot in the standings, this is not a game they can afford to lose, especially with Miami and Tennessee looming over the next two weeks.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have had a bitterly disappointing season under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels. They have won back-to-back overtime games against Denver and Seattle to salvage some of the season, but it is going to be a case of too little, too late to salvage all of it.

The one bright spot has been the play of running back Josh Jacobs, who has already eclipsed the 1,100-yard mark (leading the league entering this week) and scored nine touchdowns. He had a career game in Seattle this past week, rushing for 229 yards, including an 86-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime.

He gets a chance to add to that total and strong season on Sunday against a Chargers team with one of the league’s worst run defenses, giving up, on average, 151.4 rushing yards per game this season.

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

On paper, Sunday’s Indianapolis-Dallas game seems like it might be the biggest mismatch on the NFL’s Week 13 schedule. And the Cowboys being a double-digit favorite certainly confirms that.

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday night from Dallas. The game will be televised nationally on NBC.

These are simply two teams trending in two very different directions with very different expectations surrounding them.

Dallas enters Sunday’s game having won four of its past five games and is looking to continue solidifying itself as a Super Bowl contender in a wide-open NFC. And the Cowboys have a chance to start stacking some wins during the regular season’s stretch run. After Sunday’s game against the Colts, their next two games are against Houston and Jacksonville, two more games where they will be heavy favorites.

Dallas boasts one of the league’s best defenses, led by superstar linebacker Micah Parsons, and a two-headed monster at running back with Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott returned to the lineup on Thanksgiving, but Pollard remains the more effective runner of the two.

The Colts, meanwhile, seem like a team that is just completely lost right now. They have lost five of their past six games and have a head coach in Jeff Saturday who seems to be in over his head. This is to be expected, given that he had never really coached at any level before being given the interim job. The Colts have managed to keep things close in his first three games thanks to a strong defense, but do not have the offensive firepower to make enough plays to break through.

They enter Sunday’s game with the league’s 30th-ranked offense, which figures to be a terrible matchup against Dallas’ defense. Running back Jonathan Taylor has not had a great year, while veteran quarterback Matt Ryan is showing age and has been unable to protect the football.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mon.)

How bad has the NFC South been during the 2022 NFL season? So bad that with a win on Monday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 4-8 New Orleans Saints could actually pull to within a half a game of first place. Tampa Bay is a little more than a field goal favorite as it tries to sweep the season series.

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET Monday from Raymond James Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Somebody has to win this division, and right now, the Buccaneers are barely clinging to the top spot despite a losing record (5-6) entering play this week. While they should be in the driver’s seat for the division title, their inability to pull away has made it so literally every other team in the division (including the 4-8 Saints and Carolina Panthers) is still very much alive in the race.

The Buccaneers are coming off an ugly overtime loss in Cleveland on Sunday, snapping what had been a modest two-game winning streak.

The biggest problem for Tampa Bay remains an offense that can’t score points consistently. It has topped the 22-point mark just one time this season (a loss). Tom Brady has played relatively mistake-free football, throwing just two interceptions all year, but the big plays and scoring drives have completely evaporated.

As for the Saints, it has been a tale of two different seasons.

In the first half, they were losing many high-scoring games as their offense consistently put 25-30 points on the board, while the defense got absolutely wrecked every week.

Their games have done a complete 180 turn over the past five weeks as the offense has cooled off considerably, and the defense has tightened up. They have allowed more than 20 points just once during that stretch.

Of the Saints’ remaining five games, three of them come against their other NFC South foes, with one each against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Carolina. Winning all of them will be a must, and it has to start on Monday in Tampa Bay.

(Photo of Joe Burrow: Andy Lyons / Getty)