Fresh off another series win, Mets visit Giants for three (2024)

Having seen their winning streak come to an end the finale of a series they won in Los Angeles, the Mets (12-9) travel north to San Francisco for a three- game series against the Giants (10-13).

Over the weekend, the Mets beat the Dodgers handily to open the series, won again on Saturday, and saw an imbalanced pitching matchup turn very much not in their favor in the series finale yesterday. But the series win constitutes a great weekend for the Mets, and it continues the team’s streak that has seen it win every series since taking two of three from the Reds on the first weekend of April.

The team did suffer a couple of injuries that will affect its roster. Francisco Alvarez slipped a bit while taking an extra base and injured his thumb and is expected to miss six to eight weeks, as it turns out the injury will require surgery. The Mets called up Tomás Nido to take his place on the roster and will presumably turn to Omar Narváez as their starting catcher in Alvarez’s absence with Nido serving as his backup. Neither of the two has hit well at the major league level over the past few years, though both saw that playing time diminish significantly last year when Alvarez established himself as the starter.

Brooks Raley also hit the injured list with inflammation in his left elbow. The team said that an MRI showed no structural damage and expects him to be back when his IL stint is up in two weeks, but he’s been one of several relievers who has gotten off to a great start this year. Grant Hartwig took his spot on the roster, at least for a day yesterday, and gave up a couple of runs in two innings against the Dodgers. Whether Hartwig sticks around or is cycled for another arm out of Syracuse, the loss of Raley likely makes for a temporary downgrade in that spot in the bullpen.

In the non-injury department, it would be fair if the Mets had some concerns about Adrian Houser’s status in the starting rotation. It’s still very early in the season, and the Dodgers are perpetually capable of putting up a big day at the plate. But Houser has a 7.45 ERA and a 5.14 FIP through his first four starts as a Met. If the team were to turn to another pitcher in the near future, Joey Lucchesi could get a look and is pitching reasonably well in Syracuse. Christian Scott, the Mets’ top pitching prospect right now, has a tantalizing strikeout rate and should get consideration for the role, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team consider him. There’s no indication that a change is imminent, but it’s a thing to think about.

As for the Giants, the team begins the series in fourth place in the National League West, and they’re 5-5 over their past ten games. Most recently, they split a series with the division rival Diamondbacks with one of the losses having seen them lose by sixteen runs. On the whole, the team has scored 4.18 runs per game, which is a bit below the major league average. When it comes to run prevention, though, the Giants’ 5.05 runs allowed per game is the sixth-highest mark in the league.

Two of the Giants’ regulars are hitting well above league average by wRC+: Lamonte Wade Jr. and Patrick Bailey. Old friend Michael Conforto and new addition Jorge Soler have been just shy of the 120 wRC+ mark to start the year, and June Hoo Lee are Nick Ahmed are a tick above league average, while Matt Chapman is a tick below.

Jordan Hicks, who is attempting to be a starting pitcher again this year, has gotten off to the best start of any Giants starter, but the Mets will miss him in this series. The Giants’ rotation ranks 22nd in baseball with a 4.56 ERA, but the team’s bullpen has a 5.62 ERA that is the second-worst mark in baseball, better than only the Phillies. Given the Mets’ ability to put up runs late in games, getting to San Francisco’s bullpen could be pretty useful over the course of these three games.

Monday, April 22: Jose Quintana vs. Keaton Winn, 9:45 PM EDT on SNY

Quintana (2024): 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 16 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 76 ERA-

Quintana’s results have been pretty good despite a walk rate that’s several percentage points higher to start this season than it was last season. Quintana’s walk rate is just over one percentage point lower than the rate he had last year, but it’s much less of a discrepancy. The walks have contributed to relatively short outings, too, as he’s averaged just over five innings per start. Still, Quintana has been a valuable part of the team’s rotation thus far, one who’s pitching pretty significantly better than league average by ERA-, and has given the Mets a chance to win in all four of his starts.

Winn (2024): 22.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 17 K, 8 BB, 2 HR, 101 ERA-

The 26-year-old Winn made nine appearances, five of which were starts, for the Giants in 2023. He didn’t see the Mets in any of those outings, but he had a 4.68 ERA and a 4.37 FIP in 42.1 innings. Exclusively a starter to start this year, Winn has put up slightly better numbers in four appearances. He’s been roughly league average by ERA-, has a decent enough walk rate, and has a relatively low strikeout rate—though it’s roughly on par with Quintana’s.

Tuesday, April 23: Luis Severino vs. Logan Webb, 9:45 PM EDT on WPIX

Severino (2024): 21.0 IP, 2.15 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 21 K, 9 BB, 2 HR, 53 ERA-

While you’d love to see fewer walks and maybe a few more strikeouts, it’s hard to complain about how well Severino’s season has begun coming off a very rough 2023 season with the Yankees. Among qualified starting pitchers, Severino’s ERA is the 19th-best out of 82 pitchers in all of baseball. It’s far too early to jump to any conclusions, but he’s been a bright spot for the team.

Webb (2024): 30.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 22 K, 6 BB, 1 HR, 72 ERA-

While he hasn’t been quite as good as Severino by ERA or ERA-, Web has been pretty great in his first five starts. He’s coming off a season in which he threw 216.0 innings with a 3.25 ERA and finished second in National League Cy Young voting.

Wednesday, April 24: Sean Manaea vs. Blake Snell, 3:45 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2024): 19.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 21 K, 10 BB, 1 HR, 102 ERA-

Roughly a league average pitcher so far, Manaea saw his numbers take a big hit in a poor outing against the Royals but bounced back pretty nicely against the Dodgers. While that start wasn’t dominant, it was solid, and given that he’s only had one truly bad outing in his first four is still encouraging. He’ll be facing his former team for the first time since leaving San Francisco.

Snell (2024): 11.2 IP, 11.57 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 12 K, 5 BB, 2 HR, 285 ERA-

FIP suggests that Snell should be better than his ghastly ERA, but the results in his first three starts with the Giants have ben awful. Snell infamously signed at the very end of the offseason and might’ve needed more time to ramp up for the season before he was actually put into the Giants’ rotation. But all three of his starts have gone poorly. It’s unlikely that Snell is actually this bad now, but it would be nice if the Mets could take advantage of any of his early struggles.